作者：John Davidson
编译自：Virtual reality to take a decade as users chicken out, study shows
2017年，虚拟现实（VR）和增强现实（AR）技术或一如往常那样火热。但一边是犹疑不决的消费者，一边是乏善可陈的内容产品，若想成为主流恐怕还要等上10年，最新研究显示。
2月21日，澳大利亚调研公司Telsyte发布了《2017澳大利亚VR&AR市场研究》报告，总结指出这两项技术目前陷入了类似于“先有鸡还是先有蛋”的困境之中——消费者要等相关内容都丰富起来才肯掏腰包，而内容生厂商要等市场需求足够大才愿意投资生产。
调查显示，目前VR、AR都未在澳大利亚实现普遍应用，截至2016年底，家庭普及率仅为2.3%。一方面，极少数澳大利亚人尝试体验过VR、AR技术，在16岁及以上人群中仅有11%的人试戴过相关设备；另一方面，企业不敢先于市场需求进行大量生产，使得有过尝试且有意向的顾客都难买到相关产品。
“厂家对新产品生产都很谨慎，”Telsyte总经理、报告主笔人Foad Fadaghi表示。“他们仍对3D电视等来去匆匆的技术产品心有余悸。”
今年这种困境和忧虑仍旧存在，所以可能要到2018年才能知道VR、AR究竟是会站稳脚步还是重蹈3D电视的覆辙，Fadaghi认为。
不少VR产品生产商表示教育将是最先采用该技术的领域，Telsyte报告却发现电子游戏、视频观看会吸引更多用户。
“VR在教育领域确实得到一些应用，”Fadaghi表示。“许多教育人士将VR看成一个大机遇，因为它可以通过沉浸式体验让学生极大发挥想象力。”
“但我们询问了相关用户，他们购买VR产品主要是为了玩游戏和看电影，”他说道。正如一半的智能手机应用收入都流向了游戏行业一样。
VR和AR相互依存，其中VR得益于游戏发展，应用推广速度最快；而AR可用于游戏和商业App，使用范围最广。
“这两项技术最终都会腾飞发展，”Fadaghi预测。“不过要成为主流仍需假以时日，可能要过10年，就跟智能手机发展一样。”
Virtual reality to take a decade as users chicken out, study shows
Virtual reality is in a “chicken and egg” situation where consumers are waiting for more content before buying, and content makers are waiting for more customers.
Virtual and augmented reality might be the buzz technologies of 2017, but consumer hesitation and shortage of products could mean they won’t go mainstream until next decade, new research shows.
The 102-page Australian VR & AR Market Study 2017, released Tuesday by the Australian research company Telsyte, concludes that the technology has found itself in a chicken-and-egg predicament, with consumers unwilling to buy into it until there is enough content, and content producers unwilling to buy into it until there are enough consumers.
Virtual reality technology uses headsets, often just a mobile phone with lens attached to it, that are strapped to the face so users can play video games or watch movies, completely surrounded by the device’s video feed.
Augmented reality can use headsets or handheld devices, that mix computer-generated video with live images of the real world.
Neither technology has gained widespread adoption in Australia, with household penetration estimated at only 2.3 per cent at the end of 2016, according to the study.
That figure has been kept low in part because few Australians have been able to try VR or AR to see if they like it – nervousness about trying on headsets has meant that only 11 per cent of Australians aged 16 years or older have actually tried a headset, Telsyte found – and in part because the manufacturers been nervous about shipping too many products ahead of demand, making them hard to buy even for consumers who have tested it.
“Manufacturers are taking a measured approach to this new category of products,” said Foad Fadaghi, managing director of Telsyte and author of the report.
“They still have memories of other technologies that have come and gone, like 3D TV.”
A waiting game
With such constraints still in force for much of 2017, it could be 2018 before we know whether VR and AR will gain a proper foothold or go the way of 3D TVs, Mr Fadaghi said.
While a number of VR manufacturers have said that education will be the first sector to properly adopt the technology, Telsyte’s research found that it will be video gaming and movie watching that will draw more people in.
“We do see some uses in education,” said Mr Fadaghi. “A lot of educators look at VR as a big opportunity, given its ability to capture the imagination of young people with immersive experiences.
“But when we ask consumers what they want to use VR for, it’s primarily for games and movies,” he said. The same is true of smartphones: half of all smartphone app revenues go to the gaming industry.
Of the two complementary technologies, it will be virtual reality that has the fastest adoption, thanks to games, but it will be augmented reality that has the broadest application, because it can be used for gaming and business apps.
“It will all eventually take off,” predicts said Mr Fadaghi. “It will just take a little longer before it becomes mainstream. It could be 10 years, just like smartphones.”
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